ELECTRICITY TRADING SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK ENDING MONDAY 16/03/2020

Weekly Highlights*

  • CY 20 forward curve was down
    • NSW = $67.22 (down $1.25)
    • VIC = $61.10 (down $1.43)
    • QLD = $51.46 (down $1.19)
    • SA = $57.05 (down $1.45)
  • Q1 20 was down
    • NSW = $85.50 (down $1.50)
    • VIC = $78.25 (down $2.75)
    • QLD = $54.89 (down $1.66)
    • SA = $66.50 (down $4)
  • Q2 20 was mixed
    • NSW = $60 (down $2.01)
    • VIC = $54.50 (down $2.50)
    • QLD = $49.50 (down $1.50)
    • SA = $52.25 (up $0.45)
  • Implied at-the-money base load Q1 2020 average rate option volatility settled at 30% in NSW, 30% in VIC, 30% in QLD and 30% in SA.
  • Implied at-the-money base load Calendar Year 2021 option volatility settled at 22.28% in NSW, 30% in VIC, 28.05% in QLD and 30% in SA.
  • Implied at-the-money base load Financial Year 2021 option volatility settled at 24.87% in NSW, 30% in VIC, 21.40% in QLD and 30% in SA.

This week's distribution of volume by region: NSW 26.02%, QLD 28.94%, VIC 44.67% and SA 0.37%.

Overall Open Interest has increased by 1,303 to 82,233 lots. Futures increased by 720 to 57,151 lots and Options increased by 583 to 25,082 lots.

Weekly Volume*^

  • Face Value of electricity traded this week = $617 Million
  • Futures contracts traded this week (including Cap futures) = 2,401
    • Base Months = 0
    • Base Quarters = 2,123
    • Peak Quarters = 60
    • Base Cap Quarters = 218
  • Quarterly Average Rate Options traded this week = 671
  • Calendar Year Options traded this week = 125 (500 quarterly equivalent contracts)
  • Financial Year Options traded this week = 331 (1,324 quarterly equivalent contracts)
  • Volume of EFP this week = 110
  • Volume of Block Trades this week = 3,024
  • Total MWh traded this week = 10.65 million MWh
  • Open Interest (including caps and options) = 82,233 (representing 272.85 million MWh and a face value of $16.92 billion approx.)

Monthly Volume*

  • FY 19/20 average daily volume = 1,259
  • FY 18/19 average daily volume = 865
  • FY 17/18 average daily volume = 608
  • FY 16/17 average daily volume = 710
  • FY 15/16 average daily volume = 705
  • FY 14/15 average daily volume = 812
  • FY 13/14 average daily volume = 702
  • FY 12/13 average daily volume = 637
  • Mar 20 volume to date = 12,325 / avg daily volume = 1,120
  • Feb 20 total volume = 34,142 / avg daily volume = 1,707
  • Jan 20 total volume = 28,814 / avg daily volume = 1,310
  • Dec 19 total volume = 23,380 / avg daily volume = 1,169
  • Nov 19 total volume = 30,915 / avg daily volume = 1,472
  • Oct 19 total volume = 23,384 / avg daily volume = 1,017
  • Sep 19 total volume = 24,529 / avg daily volume = 1,168
  • Aug 19 total volume = 22,307 / avg daily volume = 1,297
  • Jul 19 total volume = 24,389 / avg daily volume = 1,060
  • Jun 19 total volume = 20,563 / avg daily volume = 1,028
  • May 19 total volume = 24,896 / avg daily volume = 1,082
  • Apr 19 total volume = 12,260 / avg daily volume = 645
  • Mar 19 total volume = 20,022 / avg daily volume = 953
  • Feb 19 total volume = 16,582 / avg daily volume = 829
  • Jan 19 total volume = 14,670 / avg daily volume = 667
  • Dec 18 total volume = 13,493 / avg daily volume = 710
  • Nov 18 total volume = 28,376 / avg daily volume = 1,290
  • Oct 18 total volume = 21,811 / avg daily volume = 948
  • Sep 18 total volume = 11,561 / avg daily volume = 578
  • Aug 18 total volume = 19,368 / avg daily volume = 842
  • Jul 18 total volume = 16,190 / avg daily volume = 735
  • Jun 18 total volume = 21,906 / avg daily volume = 1,043
  • May 18 total volume = 16,292 / avg daily volume = 708
  • Apr 18 total volume = 11,632 / avg daily volume = 612
  • Mar 18 total volume = 13,112 / avg daily volume = 642
  • Feb 18 total volume = 11,181 / avg daily volume = 559
  • Jan 18 total volume = 12,593 / avg daily volume = 572
  • Dec 17 total volume = 6,475 / avg daily volume = 340
  • Nov 17 total volume = 12,700 / avg daily volume = 577
  • Oct 17 total volume = 11,237 / avg daily volume = 510
  • Sep 17 total volume = 14,994 / avg daily volume = 714
  • Aug 17 total volume = 10,276 / avg daily volume = 446
  • Jul 17 total volume = 11,996 / avg daily volume = 571
  • Jun 17 total volume = 11,817 / avg daily volume = 537
  • May 17 total volume = 16,637 / avg daily volume = 723
  • Apr 17 total volume = 11,547 / avg daily volume = 642
  • Mar 17 total volume = 13,800 / avg daily volume = 600
  • Feb 17 total volume = 25,211 / avg daily volume = 1,261
  • Jan 17 total volume = 15,608 / avg daily volume = 743
*all contracts are 1 MW calendar quarter equivalent

^volume includes futures trades which result from option exercise, face value of options calculated at strike price

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Chart Futures, Caps and Options VolumeChart Futures, Caps and Options Volume

Futures and Caps Open Interest - Peak=Futures, Base=Futures+Caps - as at COB Mon 16 Mar 2020

  NSW VIC QLD SA
  Peak Base Peak Base Peak Base Peak Base
Apr 2020 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
May 2020 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Jun 2020 - 115 - 0 - 0 - 0
Q22020 154 2,352 86 1,774 164 2,570 0 369
Q32020 105 2,225 161 2,158 147 2,336 0 364
Q42020 113 2,568 126 2,194 145 2,109 0 421
Q12021 22 2,357 61 1,936 45 1,862 0 375
Q22021 22 1,667 55 1,445 35 1,464 0 199
Q32021 4 950 15 994 25 1,139 0 140
Q42021 4 972 15 968 25 1,115 0 128
Q12022 0 611 15 637 0 719 0 22
Q22022 0 606 15 599 0 661 0 6
Q32022 0 158 0 343 0 306 0 11
Q42022 0 156 0 346 0 337 0 1
Q12023 0 10 0 93 0 95 0 2
Q22023 0 10 0 93 0 95 0 0
Q32023 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
Q42023 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
Total 424 14,757 549 13,584 586 14,808 0 2,038

Options Open Interest As at COB Mon 16 Mar 2020

  NSW VIC QLD SA
Jun 2020 820 681 515 20
Sep 2020 430 562 485 0
Dec 2020 425 590 300 0
Mar 2021 0 50 100 0
Jun 2021 0 0 100 0
Fin 2021 1,150 1,382 2,235 0
Cal 2021 1,695 2,406 1,830 0
Fin 2022 575 1,192 690 0
Cal 2022 280 210 560 0
Fin 2023 0 0 325 0
Cal 2023 0 0 0 0
Total 5,375 7,073 7,140 20